Get this:
Without a doubt, $5 gas would pose yet another significant psychological milestone forcing Americans yet again to look for ways to scale back their consumption.
Still, most analysts don’t think we’ll see $5 gas this summer. Americans have been so stunned by this decade’s run-up in prices that they’ve finally started driving less, and the drop in demand for gasoline should keep prices from passing the $5 milestone, analysts say.
They’re wrong. Totally, completely, dead wrong.
But no one wants to sound too sure. Not after watching California’s average gas price cross $3, then $3.50, then $4 in just three years.
“Five dollars? I don’t see it happening,” said Denton Cinquegrana, who tracks West Coast gasoline markets for the Oil Price Information Service. “Demand is just so crappy right now. But I’ve been wrong before.”Even if it doesn’t hit $5 this year, it’s possible in 2009 unless oil prices drop.
“Maybe not by the end of the year, but certainly within a year we’ll get there,” said Rod Diridon, head of the Mineta Transportation Institute at San Jose State University.
I’m here to tell you that I paid $4.68 on Friday (for premium — all these gas prices that people quote are averages based on regular all over the country, which has absolutely no resemblance to what it actually costs). The calculated national average is just under $4 according to the AAA. Here, it’s just under $5.
My prediction is that my corner station will hit $5 by July 4. We’re only 30¢ away, and every time the price changes it goes up by 10¢. Check back in a few weeks. If I’m right, I’m just gonna hire myself out as a high-paid analyst.
